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For Edwin Sifuna, the Challenge Lies in Managing Raila’s National Constituency
Following Raila Odinga’s passing, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as a compelling force in Kenyan politics, turning from an underdog in ODM’s internal battles to a galvanizing figure with national resonance.
By John Onyando
One day is indeed a long time in politics. Last Thursday, I travelled out of Nairobi when Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna was fighting for survival after his clandestine and unceremonious ouster from the ODM Secretary-General’s position.
But having been boxed into a corner, Sifuna instinctively traded the boardroom for the trenches. By the time I returned to the city on Tuesday, he had become a phenomenon. With just a handful of stage appearances, the senator had secured his place in ODM and launched himself into national politics.
In his now well-watched Kitengela rally, Sifuna, donning a T-shirt emblazoned with Raila Odinga’s image, channelled the modus operandi of his mentor’s heyday, engaging the people directly. Flanked by a team of ODM heavyweights, including Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, he addressed a massively charged crowd reminiscent of the life and times of Raila himself.
With ODM now on the precipice of a definitive schism, the euphoric event has been touted as a declaration of war against the party’s old guard and the regime. There is no doubt that the senator’s strong oratory, stage presence, and policy base align best with those who feel orphaned by Raila’s political exit. Of all the upcoming national politicians, he is the only one who speaks, and we listen, even when we do not agree with him.
Beyond the Raila base, his youth, charisma, and economic populism resonate widely. He enjoys a genuine connection with progressive and young voters due to the internal logic of his positions, his aversion to establishment intrigues, and his disposition to centre the people.
It is unsurprising, therefore, that his offensive is attracting support from unlikely quarters. From the conspicuous endorsements of former Ruto ally Millicent Omanga to the overt backing of the Odinga family, including Mama Ida, Winnie, and Raila Junior, Sifuna is steadily positioning himself as the true custodian of Baba’s legacy.
But speculation is still rife over whether he can sustain the momentum and navigate Kenya’s precarious political waters, with elections on the horizon. His first detractors will be those threatened by his ambition. After decades of oppression and elite manipulation of politics, timidity is deeply ingrained in our national psyche.
There will also be those who see Sifuna’s candidature as a ploy to divide an opposition whose senior players will not play second fiddle to him. This concern is justified by the popular belief that only a united opposition can defeat President William Ruto. But removing Ruto is not an end in itself. A candidate’s chances of success trump policy only for those who aim to replace Ruto in plundering the country.
Like Raila before him, Sifuna would provide voters with a strong alternative, irrespective of whether he wins or loses. And while he could very well win, depending on how he navigates the political terrain, a loss would not diminish him. His presidential bid would excite a grassroots movement for change, propelling him to the centre of politics in the foreseeable future.
As he moves to consolidate national support from Kakamega this weekend, the bigger risk Sifuna will face is what will happen if he does not run for president. The united opposition, having recognised his potential, will most certainly suffocate him. To even win back his senatorial seat, he would have to toe the line in one or the other of the reactionary parties in the united opposition.
While recent history is littered with “third force” movements, like the hyped Maraga-Omtatah ticket that has since fizzled out, Sifuna, as the apparent heir to Raila’s constituency, is uniquely positioned to rise above his compatriots. Thus, his trajectory will be shaped by how he manages that constituency.
Whatever path he chooses, he must remember that what made Raila so resilient as a politician was not raw brilliance but pragmatism.
The writer, a former communication aide to Raila Odinga, is the author of “Kenya: The Failed Quest for Electoral Justice.”
A very well thought out reality of Kenyan’s political dynamism. The challenge that lies ahead of Sifuna is just within the Linda wananchi brigade. Babu Owino thought and was believed to be the one to take over late Raila Odinga’s constituency, the rise of Sifuna leaves Babu to play a second fiddle which may not settle well with him(Babu).
The real test now will be whether ODM can manage these competing centers of power without internal rivalry weakening the movement ahead of future political battles.
Very articulate points. Sifuna has given true Raila odinga followers true hope again in politics!.the vacuum baba left was too hollow!.He should ensure his name is on the ballot for presidency irrespective of the outcome toplace him better after 2027.
Edwin Sifuna’s biggest political test may not be debating opponents, but carrying the weight of Raila Odinga’s vast national influence while still building his own identity. In Kenyan politics, inheriting a movement is easier than sustaining its trust.